Coffee Bean Prices Are Still High — Here’s What’s Actually Going On

Australian cafe owners have had a rough couple of years on the cost side. Coffee bean prices skyrocketed through 2024 and into 2025, hitting a record high of around $13.20 AUD per kilogram for arabica futures in February 2025. And while prices have pulled back since then — sitting around $11.60 AUD per kilogram as of mid-2026 — that relief hasn't fully filtered through to what cafes are actually paying.

If you've been watching your cost of goods creep up and wondering when it stops, here's an honest look at what's actually driving the situation — and what you can do about it.

What Caused the Price Spike?

The short answer: a perfect storm of climate events, currency shifts, and supply chain stress.

Brazil and Vietnam — the world's two largest coffee producers — both experienced poor harvests in 2023 and 2024. Brazil, which produces around 40% of the world's arabica, saw drought conditions followed by unseasonably cold weather that damaged both current and future crops. Vietnam, the dominant robusta producer, had similar issues.

On top of that, the US dollar strengthened significantly against the Australian dollar through this period. Since coffee is traded internationally in USD, every dollar of movement in the exchange rate adds real cost at the importer level — and that cost gets passed along the chain.

Freight costs, which had already been elevated since the pandemic, stayed stubbornly high. Container shortages, rerouting around conflict zones, and general logistics disruption kept shipping expensive well into 2025.

Why Are Prices Still Elevated?

You'd be forgiven for thinking that now Brazil has had better harvests, prices should be back to normal. It's not quite that simple.

First, supply chain lag. Even when green bean prices soften at origin, that takes time to work through to your roaster's price list. Importers buy forward, roasters hold stock, and wholesale pricing tends to be stickier on the way down than on the way up.

Second, the AUD has remained weak. Even with arabica futures pulling back in USD terms, the exchange rate hasn't helped Australian buyers as much as the raw numbers suggest. A 10% fall in USD futures doesn't mean a 10% fall in your AUD invoice.

Third, some of the cost increase was absorbed at different points in the chain during the spike, and businesses are understandably reluctant to give that back until they're confident the lower prices will hold.

The good news: most analysts expect arabica prices to continue easing through late 2026 as Brazilian supply recovers. The bad news: "easing" probably means $10–$11 AUD per kilogram, not the sub-$8 prices some cafes remember from 2020–2021.

What This Means for Australian Cafes

For independent cafes, the squeeze has been real. Coffee is typically 25–35% of a cafe's cost of goods, so a 30–40% rise in bean prices hits hard — especially when you're already dealing with higher wages, energy costs, and rent.

Industry data suggests cafe closures in NSW and Victoria ticked up notably in 2024 and 2025, with cost pressures cited as a primary factor. The cafes that managed best tended to be the ones who either locked in supply contracts before the spike hit, or those who had more flexibility on their menu pricing.

Volume matters more now than it did five years ago. The more coffee you're moving, the more leverage you have on pricing — whether that's negotiating better wholesale terms or accessing volume-tier pricing from your supplier.

Practical Moves for Cafe Owners Right Now

You can't control what happens on a Brazilian farm or what the RBA does to interest rates. But there are things within your control:

Review your blend composition. A straight single-origin arabica is going to cost more than a well-designed blend. Most customers won't notice the difference in their flat white. Talk to your roaster about whether your current blend is still the best value proposition for your volume and customer profile.

Know your actual cost per cup. Bean cost is just one variable. Grind waste, inconsistent dosing, and over-extraction can add up to meaningful losses. A quick audit of your workflow can often find savings that offset some of the bean cost increase.

Consider menu pricing honestly. Cafe owners are notoriously reluctant to raise prices. But if your cost of goods has gone up 20–30% and your menu hasn't changed in three years, you're probably absorbing losses you shouldn't be. Most customers understand — a 50-cent increase on a $5.50 flat white is not going to empty your tables.

Look at your supply model. If you're buying your coffee from a roaster who adds significant margin at every step, it might be worth looking at whether a more direct supply model — like branded coffee under your own label — could reduce what you're paying per kilogram while giving you more consistency.

The Case for Owning Your Own Coffee Brand

One trend we've seen accelerate during the high-price period: more cafes moving to private label coffee. When you're paying premium prices anyway, it makes sense to at least get the branding benefit — and often you can access better pricing by working with a supplier like Brand Roast Supply who handles the roasting and packaging under your own label.

No minimum order quantity, volume-tiered pricing, and your name on the bag. It doesn't eliminate the impact of green bean price movements, but it does mean you're building something that has value beyond just the cost of goods — you're creating a brand asset your customers associate with your cafe.

If you're curious what that looks like for your volume and blend preferences, get in touch with us at Brand Roast Supply. No pressure, no jargon — just a straight conversation about whether it makes sense for your situation.

The Bottom Line

Coffee bean prices are still elevated compared to where they were a few years ago, and the full recovery is probably 12–18 months away. In the meantime, the cafes that will do best are the ones treating their coffee supply as a strategic variable — not just a line item to manage downward.

Understand your costs, build relationships with suppliers who are transparent about pricing, and make sure your menu reflects the reality of what it costs to run a quality coffee program in 2026.